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jurac's Public Page   February 13, 2012
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left curve   top ranked funds managed by jurac right curve
   
Name Symbol  
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES Dtech  
Homeland Security Fund HSF  
Shorting Scams & Story Stocks SSSS  
jurac's SHORT Fund XXX  
     
left curve  Forum Topics created by jurac right curve
    Current rank: ---
    Past ranks: Crown: m100 over 2 yearsM: m100M: m100M: m1005T: Top Ranked 5 times5T: Top Ranked 5 times5T: Top Ranked 5 times5T: Top Ranked 5 timesT: Top RankedT: Top RankedT: Top RankedQ: Top QuartileQ: Top QuartileQ: Top QuartileQ: Top Quartile
   
Topic Posts Last message Views
[click here] 'Avian Flu: Are We Ready?' 25 22 Jan 2006 116
[click here] 'The REVOLUTION is starting tomorrow ?' 42 02 Jun 2005 110
[click here] 'HEPH --- Clear and Present Danger !' 3 03 Jan 2005 38
[click here] 'CURE - a potential highflier?' 2 24 Jul 2004 32
     
left curve  manager profile right curve
   
ABOUT jurac
Age: NOT AVAILABLE  Occupation: Physicist 
Other Interests : NOT AVAILABLE     
     
   
HOW THE MANAGER INVESTS
WHAT IS YOUR INVESTING STRATEGY? (GROWTH, VALUE, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, ETC.)
answer --> Quantitative modeling and some common sense. I try to model the market using different physical concepts (Random walk & diffusion, Nonlinear dynamics & chaos, Plasma instabilities, Extreme value theory...). Nonlinear instabilities in the marketplace are very similar to these known in physics. Distinctively turbulent price/volume action often signals a stock breakout. Raising cash levels when a similar type of instability was observed in the Nasdaq Composite frequently proved to be fruitful. Another promising concept is using a fat-tailed distribution function for calculating forward earnings (or cash flow) based on the past earnings, instead of just extrapolating a straight line. This way the uncertainties in the projected P/E and Risk/Reward ratio could be estimated. Common sense primarily includes examining the income statements, balance sheets, 10 Q/Ks...
HOW DO YOU SELECT NEW COMPANIES FOR YOUR FUNDS?
answer --> Unfortunately, the strategy has to change often to capture the dominant inefficiency in the marketplace. Since the market was not advancing much in the last quarter of 2003, it was mainly the bottom fishing. When a company dropped out of favor and the stock plunged I tried to estimate 1) what is the fair price based on the underlying fundamentals 2) what is the likely time frame for this inefficiency to correct (i.e. "forgiveness lifetime") based on the past behavior of that (or a similar) stock. If the lifetime was short and the stock sufficiently under-priced -- it was a buy.
HOW DO YOU DECIDE TO REMOVE A STOCK FROM YOUR FUNDS?
answer --> When a stock appears overpriced based on the fundamental metrics it is replaced with a cheaper one. Although this risk containment strategy might make sense in the normal circumstances, in 2003 over-enthusiastic tech environment it was more painful than the Chinese Torture - especially when the stock(s) moved up significantly after I sold out. Although… common sense tells me that the party won’t last forever.
     
left curve  about this manager profile right curve
    This is a profile for jurac, a member at Marketocracy's website www.marketocracy.com. Each of the funds listed here began with $1 million in cash and a Net Asset Value (NAV) of $10 per share.

Marketocracy is the only financial website where you can simulate running your own mutual fund and accurately compare your investing skill to professionally managed mutual funds and other investors. At Marketocracy, you can manage a $1 million virtual portfolio and make trades in an environment that mirrors the trading activity of the real stock market. Our portfolio management tools help you discover your investing strengths and weaknesses and help you become a better investor. You can try different investment strategies and styles to see what works best for you in a virtual environment first, before you invest your real money. It's a great place to learn, and a great place to prove your talent.

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