| |
|
| AUTHOR:
tchotki |
RANK:
Top Quartile  |
DATE:
Jun 10, 2003 |
PAST
RANK:       |
I don't own Microsoft and wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole. I think it will become another Lucent or K-Mart. If it were not so cash rich and still garning money under its former Windows monopoly it would be having hard times. Microsoft created Linux. By blocking all forms of for profit competition, it created the ultimate enemy, competition that makes money by giving away the same things for free.
The problem, in my mind, with Microsoft is not so much the company as its leadership. It isn't ready to scrap Windows and look critically at its business units. It makes sense to milk Windows as long as possible, but they are creating so much ill-will in the long run that they will have great difficulty being considered credible in the software community when the power is gone.
Consider the SCO controversy. It has come up in a number of articles that it doesn't pass the stink test. It looks too much like Microsoft trying to stifle competition via a straw party transaction. Microsoft hasn't learned yet. Quite a number of government agencies, national governments and localities have scrapped Microsoft products in favor of open source products. Some have passed laws requiring the first consideration of open source alternatives before acquiring proprietary software. One provencial government in Spain burned 80,000 Linux CDs to teach their elementary students computer programming. This impacts Microsoft differentially from other firms. The open source community isn't anti-Sun or anti-anything except Microsoft.
There is an interesting set of studies in psychology and in economics of gift giving. Logically no one would give away billions of dollars of software for free, which is what open source does, unless it serves other economic goals. Sometimes that is recognition. For example, one of the original investors in Apple is donating a substantial sum to someone who writes an open source version of Outlook. It is a contest I believe. It of course has to be many times more functional but that isn't too hard either. Best software wins the prize. Every Microsoft product is being rebuilt but rebuilt better and for free. Microsoft cannot adapt to this. K-Mart and Lucent couldn't either. It is time for Microsoft to move on and develop other lines of business. If it wants Windows and Windows based systems to survive it needs to put them out as open source. In that scenerio, Windows could survive and Microsoft could be the equivalent for Windows that Red Hat is for Linux.
Lucent had all the major switches out there once. It had a functional monopoly. Who knew that the old telecom switching system would get scrapped and that they would have nothing? Oh yeah, I think they called them US Cellular and AOL. |
|
| AUTHOR:
mhiggins1 |
RANK:
Top Quartile |
DATE:
Jul 01, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
I must respectfully disagree.
As a network engineer for a Fortune 500 company, I can tell you that Microsoft and it's Windows OS will not be going away anytime soon. While some governments want to try to push open source, those governments can afford the open source solution. Windows still offers a TCO for the user than open source, and the bottom line is all that matters to the corporate which will continue to buy Microsoft products.
For companies, several problems arise if they choose to move away from Microsoft to open source. We can start simply with the fact that most IT departments have many capable employees experienced with Windows. There are far, far less who are adequately experienced in open source, and companies have to pay a premium to bring in those who are fully qualified in open source. I can train a monkey to point and click his way through Windows 2000 Server, and I can pay him about half of what I would need to pay a good Unix/Linux engineer, who would then have to spend months retraining all of my previously trained monkeys.
Another problem is then retraining the users, who have a hard enough time using Windows. Retraining all employees on new apps that now run on open source instead of thier old reliable Windows would eat tremendous holes in the bottom lines of large companies who chose to make the switch. In truth, after years of frustration with the slow development of open source, many companies have completely rid themselves of it, or have greatly diminished its use except for those cases where there is no reasonable or cost effective Windows or third party solution.
While Microsofts business practices are somewhat questionable, if not outright illegal in some cases, the fact is that they dominate a market, they are not only the market leader, they are THE MARKET. No company offers as wide a variety of solutions that are as consumer friendly as Microsoft. The generation of kids coming out of school now grew up with Microsoft, and much like other dominant brands, like Coca-Cola, etc, it is a familiar product and the first choice, in many cases the only choice, of the consumers. Open source might be free, but it has been slow to develop, it is not user friendly, and will cost more to support than a Microsoft product. And as a market leader, MSFT can not be overlooked when building a portfolio. |
|
| AUTHOR:
jnavin |
RANK:
m100 |
DATE:
Jul 24, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
Microsoft will around for awhile, the question is will it outperform the market as a whole or begin to take on the faded glow of a former high-flyer that's now become a staid, but under-achieving household name.
I don't know.
But here's what's bugging me. Today, MSFT announced that it would be hiring 5000 new workers. It amazes me to see how Wall Street analysts greet this news as "bullish."
For years and years, the best way for a company to light a fire underneath its stock has been to fire or lay-off workers. It's always been good for 10-15% quickly. Wall Street sits up and pays attention to the CEO who is unafraid to kick workers to the curb.
But, as is often stated, "this time it's different." The hiring of workers is, guess what, bullish, because "this time" it means the long-awaited tech recovery must be upon us. Else, why would Bill be hiring?
It's funny and sad to see this kind of hypocrisy coming from supposedly well-educated MBA's.
|
|
| AUTHOR:
mt_suit |
RANK:
Top Quartile |
DATE:
Jul 26, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
There was an interesting analysis showing that the stock with the largest market cap has historicly underperformed the market by a wide margin. Think of EXXON, IBM, GE ...
And wasn't Cisco briefly the king?
Microsoft is valued as a growth stock, but how much can a $290Bn company grow? |
|
| AUTHOR:
jordanb69 |
RANK:
Top Quartile |
DATE:
Aug 28, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
Microsoft should be a core holding. They have the most cash, the greatest balance sheet, and dominant market position. Yes, the company has matured alot before our eyes but they also spend tons on R&D. They will surely create new products, services, and lines of business in coming years. They surely will be increasing their dividend every year for atleast the next 30 years. Maybe they will be a sell shortly after they take on their first debt in 25 years or so.
The key to buying the stock is to be patient for the next few years while the stock essentially consolidates and bases. You'll have to average down on this one.
I will build my position over time and only buy under $25. I will buy bigger chunks if it can get closer to $20.
|
|
| AUTHOR:
donquixote |
RANK:
Top Return |
DATE:
Aug 28, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
I also don't expect Microsoft to go away any time soon,
however the large quantity of cash that Bill and friends
have amassed does not necessarily imply financial benefit to investors
public insider stock transaction records indicate that
chairman of the board William H. Gates has sold off:
790,000 shares on 8/19/03
209,300 shares on 8/19/03
1,000,000 shares on 8/18/03
1,000,000 shares on 8/13/03
1,000,000 shares on 8/12/03
1,000,000 shares on 8/11/03
1,000,000 shares on 8/8/03
1,000,000 shares on 8/7/03
443,418 shares on 8/6/03
325,248 shares on 8/6/03
I don't see any insider buying of their own company's stock
if the top executives at Microsoft
don't seem to see benefit to
holding their own company's stock,
well, I don't see any reason to own Microsoft stock either. |
|
| AUTHOR:
bdavanzo |
RANK:
Top Quartile |
DATE:
Aug 28, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
Bill Gates still owns 1,163,799,336 shares of the company he co-founded. That's about 10% of the shares outstanding. I think that shows quite a bit of faith in the company's future. It is only understandable that with the many philanthropies he funds that from time to time he needs to sell shares. This is hardly an indication of weakness in the company.
It's true that most of the growth might be behind it, but sometimes it takes awhile for innovation to take shape in a maturing business. This is a core holding for any portfolio looking toward future returns. |
|
| AUTHOR:
rbitrage |
RANK:
Top Return |
DATE:
Sep 04, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
| I don't have a problem with owning MSFT. Just recognize that the performance of any major index has a lot of MSFT in it. So that means that you have a larger likelihood of matching the index when you purchase MSFT. MSFT won't double in the next month. Because MSFT is so big, it cannot double quickly. MSFT has a large cash position and should certainly be around a long time from now. Just don't expect too many M100 members buying. |
|
| AUTHOR:
cgnx |
RANK:
Top Quartile |
DATE:
Sep 04, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
| A no brainer for underperformance. Any competitors buying this dog will certainly help my cause. |
|
| AUTHOR:
bdavanzo |
RANK:
Top Quartile |
DATE:
Sep 04, 2003 |
| PAST
RANK: |
Hey, Mike. This is interesting.
One Month Return
MSFT +8.01%
CGNX +7.05%
We all know you're very good at this, but I don't know why you insist on saying so all the time. Why not contribute to the discussion and tell everyone why you think the stock is an underperformer, rather than just throwing out these self serving comments. I swear I'm getting a bald spot from scratching my head at some of the things you post. |
|
|
![[marketocracy]](/images/topnav/mlogo.gif){kind=small}
= Has appeared in the m100 Index
= Has appeared in the top 100 of our published rankings
= Has appeared in the top quartile for a quarter![[marketocracy]](/images/homepage/mlogo_footer.gif){kind=small}
![[comstock data]](/images/portfolio/ComStock_Logo.gif){kind=logo}